Boxing · resolved market
Will Jake Paul win by KO/TKO/DQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x904f5214fe3687e502e7e73fcb05be2d63c2494a044a8fdcc32a48bc948007f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85c1…d67bbacked Yes | 40c | 693.48$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 61c | 689.44$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…0230backed Yes | 39c | 512.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Yes | 39c | 495.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 60c | 333$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 60c | 265.27$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 242.04$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 57c | 240.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes | 42c | 236.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 38c | 221.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 43c | 183$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 59c | 170.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 61c | 155.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 62c | 141.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 38c | 138.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 41c | 118.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…af16backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 58c | 86.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…6f3bbacked Yes | 46c | 86.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09c…383dbacked Yes | 40c | 82.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…a4f7backed Yes | 39c | 76.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 42c | 67.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583c…23b5backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a61…e424backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…cb5abacked Yes | 60c | 28.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 52c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jake Paul win by KO/TKO/DQ?this page
- Will Jake Paul win by points or technical decision?Yes won
- Will Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- Will Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. win by points or technical decision?No won
- Will the fight end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.