Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.50 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x905791a21923d80076b8b464841cef21d7b2c4474b85ac5318378f82cc80d5eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,488 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 13c | 2,180$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.7 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 46c | 2,160$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,447$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,317$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 1,104$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 56c | 902.79$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.04 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 414.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…b251backed Yes | 3c | 402.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…5cc2backed Yes | 27c | 365.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -86%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…99a1backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 62c | 243.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 200.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…51a5backed Yes | 61c | 192.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 79.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 44c | 39.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.50 March 2-8?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.70 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.