Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.30 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x639aa0c94df5e70646e1745aaf5ad090c3d00714ccaedd1e3e42696688e5156f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,372 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa82a…9055backed Yes | 9c | 10,586$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.02 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…b251backed Yes | 14c | 2,924$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 50c | 1,240$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.44 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 14c | 1,097$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 54c | 612.67$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.21 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 431.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…1c94backed Yes | 32c | 431$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 27c | 341$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…8128backed No | 68c | 291$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…46f0backed Yes | 32c | 290$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1c…37f8backed No | 70c | 277$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…55a4backed Yes | 30c | 263$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…db6abacked No | 68c | 262$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52d…8abfbacked No | 69c | 255$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…d966backed No | 77c | 246.01$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…da13backed Yes | 23c | 246.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0c…abe6backed No | 68c | 233$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa436…3c2fbacked Yes | 32c | 223$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…87a9backed No | 69c | 223$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…abb5backed No | 68c | 210$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…dc69backed Yes | 32c | 201$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a7backed Yes | 30c | 199$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…91a2backed No | 70c | 185$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34c…d906backed No | 69c | 158$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 155.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…52bebacked No | 77c | 144.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…e47dbacked Yes | 31c | 142$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…e731backed Yes | 14c | 139.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 23c | 124.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8033…85acbacked Yes | 31c | 118$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…1171backed Yes | 31c | 116$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e33…e9c5backed Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 75c | 54.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…198bbacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 71c | 47.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes | 35c | 38.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…9396backed Yes | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d11…e56ebacked No | 80c | 13.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 March 2-8?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.50 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.70 March 2-8?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.