NHL · resolved market
Spread: Bruins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9091e3b898af7513d6c162c10377c4cf935d11bd32067cfd3750d85a8d0fffd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Bruins, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Bruins | 33c | 150,207$49,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,833.27 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kraken | 67c | 99,062$66,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,690.36 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 67c | 20,117$13,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,725.78 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kraken | 66c | 15,517$10,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,275.66 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Kraken | 67c | 12,000$8,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,960 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kraken | 67c | 2,090$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.7 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bruins | 32c | 1,422$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.8 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kraken | 66c | 909$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.06 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Kraken | 67c | 721$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.93 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kraken | 67c | 400$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kraken | 68c | 248.55$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kraken | 67c | 199.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kraken | 68c | 193.62$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Bruins | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Bruins | 30c | 151$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Kraken | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Kraken | 68c | 111$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Bruins | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Kraken | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Bruins | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Kraken | 70c | 86.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Kraken | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kraken | 68c | 72.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Kraken | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Kraken | 69c | 64.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kraken | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Kraken | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bruins | 32c | 37.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Kraken | 69c | 35.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Bruins | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Bruins | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kraken | 70c | 30.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec8…4143backed Kraken | 68c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Kraken | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Kraken | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Kraken | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Kraken | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Kraken | 69c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)this page
- Bruins vs. KrakenKraken won
- Bruins vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.