Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90d8901a51b8a59e43a2239eb263cf219ed28fd64378295987fc013a89c50ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 979.04$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 342.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 18c | 303.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 280$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 187.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 162.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 19c | 154.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 41c | 145.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 139.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 134.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 133.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 130.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 46c | 116.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 15c | 113.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 104.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 26c | 101.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 16c | 99.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 79.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 76.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 71.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 58c | 70.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 66.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 41c | 60.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 58.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed No | 52c | 53.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 21c | 49.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 32c | 45.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 68c | 34.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…c80ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 32.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 54c | 30.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 23.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 47c | 22.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 69c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.