Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2de1067a83622dac002e7bee3813081de37ca7c68a34eb0cc8254e3ab93c33c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 2c | 992.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 788.67$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.41 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 770.14$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 424.83$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 349.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 33c | 303.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 263.1$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 40c | 260$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 228.18$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 221.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 29c | 204.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 31c | 201.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 188$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 170.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 24c | 151.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 132.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 121.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 68c | 118.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 118.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 114.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 107$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 39c | 100.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 32c | 98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 97.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 93.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 71.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 68.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 55.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 49.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 46.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 45.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 42.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…b23ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 33.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 30.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 63c | 30.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 28.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 28.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 27.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 17.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 63c | 17.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 16.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 66c | 15.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed No | 68c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.