TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c697.62$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.598,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes37c620.47$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.691,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c476.07$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.28,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c340.05$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.442,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c328.58$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.5610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c263.1$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.745,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes29c222.29$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.781,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No63c217.85$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.673,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes26c211.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1310121.8%22 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes24c197.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.661,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes32c174.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0444536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c167.41$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c160.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.699,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa30f…4da6backed Yes23c160.87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8721132.2%68 W · 143 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No45c150.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.221,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No77c149.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.51,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes20c140$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.52,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No68c138.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.161,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c138.45$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.296,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No18c138.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.432,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No71c136.74$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.091,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c125.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.694,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes34c124.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.694,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No64c111.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0434853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c111.47$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.483,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c109.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.327,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2065…548abacked Yes32c108.44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.533923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c105.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.789,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No16c104.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes66c104.21$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.672,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes24c103.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.345,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c103.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.325,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98f8…394dbacked Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7412934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes39c97.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c82.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No78c75.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.014,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes35c73.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes22c67.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.983,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes23c67.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c67.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.547,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.445,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No79c65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.553855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc878…a6f3backed Yes37c64.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9215646.8%73 W · 83 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No78c64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c60.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.433,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca2…fa31backed Yes21c60$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.43745.9%17 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed4c…03cabacked No72c55.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403652.8%19 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No70c55.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.892,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes27c55.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes33c51.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5531936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.781,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7523540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes36c48.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0639346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No74c45.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.771,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes31c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes25c45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.619039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes24c44.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7212334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x988e…d0d0backed No68c44.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011369.9%79 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No63c43.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.431,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No73c43.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.324,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe35…57c3backed Yes30c42.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8910430.8%32 W · 72 L-16.9wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No77c42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes30c41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.715128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes68c39.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.546,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No71c38.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.341,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes63c38.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.992,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c34.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.163,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc29…66b4backed No65c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.155448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No61c27.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8287629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00fe…52e2backed No64c26.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.174353.5%23 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c25.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.733,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2516641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No77c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4813852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No68c22.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdf…eba6backed No62c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.02955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No65c20.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2651568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f2…ef25backed No62c19.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No74c17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No71c16.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8911958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa343…68d8backed No63c16.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No66c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5828660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No78c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No80c13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.465965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.