MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90f85ce752f9c562a501d7a19c41eb1db45d514917526b19a1b5334f83bad5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Under | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 44c | 2,058$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.52 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 2,055$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.74 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…3839backed Under | 49c | 1,957$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.91 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 1,754$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 1,696$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 44c | 1,364$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 47c | 1,111$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.17 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 621$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 43c | 399$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.57 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 43c | 348.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 275.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 51c | 271.72$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.17 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 65c | 215$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…6768backed Over | 42c | 208.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 203.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 155.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 138.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 133.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 66c | 126$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 13c | 125.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1164…f58bbacked Over | 43c | 124.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 42c | 107.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 78c | 103.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 42c | 92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Under | 49c | 59.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Under | 57c | 52.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 70c | 47.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 79c | 45.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 43c | 39.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 27c | 39.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 24.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Under | 65c | 22.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 55c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles AngelsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.