Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9102bf06bd79abfebd28d13edd9614de2dbd040d9955689cdfd5e4a6a14143de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 6c | 589.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 44c | 300.28$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.43 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 7c | 287.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 10c | 264.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 216.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 190.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 47c | 185.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 162.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 153.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 147.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 144.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 141.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 47c | 131.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 131$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 31c | 116.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 17c | 114$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 109.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 11c | 107.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 46c | 104.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 44c | 95.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 35c | 93.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 89.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 62c | 89.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 84.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 80.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 29c | 78.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 68c | 73.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 68.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 59.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 52.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 62c | 52.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 52.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 51.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 51c | 50.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 54c | 49.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 43c | 49.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 45c | 48.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 48.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed No | 26c | 48.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…84efbacked Yes | 47c | 47.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 43.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 47c | 42.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 49c | 42.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 38.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 32.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 38c | 30.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 43c | 27.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 26.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 65c | 25.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 50c | 24.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 17.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.