Olympics · resolved market
Will Oblique Seville (JAM) win Gold in 100m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91533ef94d35f36bf05bb140c13536ba206c34b8c2efaeafc693f5b80153adb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 0c | 82,721$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 6c | 3,071$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.67 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 7c | 2,800$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 25c | 1,005$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.71 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…24d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 27c | 551.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed Yes | 7c | 515$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…6a7fbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 19c | 192$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8692backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…cc90backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…6423backed Yes | 29c | 81.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 29c | 67.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…a877backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…715bbacked Yes | 45c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…0458backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oblique Seville (JAM) win Gold in 100m?this page
- Will Akani Simbine (RSA) win Gold in 100m?No won
- Will Ferdinand Omanyala (KEN) win Gold in 100m?No won
- Will Fred Kerley (USA) win Gold in 100m?No won
- Will Kenny Bednarek (USA) win Gold in 100m?No won
- Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m?No won
- Will Lamon Marcell Jacobs (ITA) win Gold in 100m?No won
- Will Letsile Tebogo (BOT) win Gold in 100m?No won
- Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m?Yes won
- Will another athlete win Gold in 100m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.