TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,413

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,382 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3df…82fabacked Baltimore Orioles13c359.77$47 inLost-$46.6248850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Baltimore Orioles34c279.06$96 inLost-$96.0736440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5782…8ce5backed Cleveland Guardians66c147.92$98 inWon+$49.943063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles35c108.63$38 inLost-$38.351,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Cleveland Guardians65c99.82$65 inWon+$34.9410157.4%58 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians65c90.57$59 inWon+$31.292,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Cleveland Guardians67c84.98$57 inWon+$28.1326747.9%128 W · 139 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians67c84.07$56 inWon+$27.652,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles33c78.6$26 inLost-$25.945,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ecc…ca79backed Cleveland Guardians66c74.21$49 inWon+$25.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles35c55.74$20 inLost-$19.511,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians65c50$33 inWon+$17.52,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Baltimore Orioles35c45.3$16 inLost-$15.8610449%51 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians78c41.45$32 inWon+$9.124,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Baltimore Orioles34c39.29$13 inLost-$13.3251555%283 W · 232 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Cleveland Guardians64c34.43$22 inWon+$12.3947350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Cleveland Guardians66c29.41$19 inWon+$101,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16f1…55febacked Cleveland Guardians66c16.76$11 inWon+$5.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.