TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$593,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$581,808

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,317 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed Under57c493,629$282,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,067.286445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over43c146,641$63,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,055.5431039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over42c125,000$52,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,499.935248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Over44c100,000$43,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,5002748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over43c42,280$18,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,109.811,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Over44c27,680$12,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,091.088464.3%54 W · 30 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over41c24,448$10,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,023.887441.9%31 W · 43 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under57c17,200$9,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,459.7854152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over47c11,128$5,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,229.521,68150.1%842 W · 839 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2001,15349.2%567 W · 586 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over43c9,658$4,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,152.9459549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over42c7,000$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,96020350.7%103 W · 100 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Under53c5,278$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.452065%13 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over41c5,056$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.531,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Over42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9855053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over27c4,454$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.2512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under54c4,142$2,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.1830647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over42c3,443$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.962,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over43c2,324$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.2749358.8%290 W · 203 L+30.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under57c2,305$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.3662447.6%297 W · 327 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over46c1,967$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.6145451.3%233 W · 221 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Over43c1,813$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.3918553.5%99 W · 86 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over43c1,688$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.426,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Over43c1,563$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.0348850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over42c1,517$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.39,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Over44c1,442$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.6248150.7%244 W · 237 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76e4…febcbacked Over47c1,236$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.929045.6%41 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over14c1,207$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.424,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Over45c1,207$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.0712850%64 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under54c1,189$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.7236649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under57c1,094$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.31,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205757.9%33 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Under53c999.97$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.993243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over44c866.56$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.951,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Under54c829.48$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.5610157.4%58 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over43c814$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.021,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over42c799.86$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2567849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Over41c785.73$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.1513549.6%67 W · 68 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over43c761.07$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.156,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under57c729.15$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.531,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over13c708.09$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8214034.3%48 W · 92 L-13.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Over43c704.94$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.585756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over46c700.56$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2122753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Under57c662.46$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.8612049.2%59 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over43c624.43$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.571,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Over47c515$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.056662.1%41 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Over50c504.4$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.219542.6%83 W · 112 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Over44c490.7$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.362040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Over28c480.55$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9436440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3e…7857backed Over27c447.87$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.874245.2%19 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over40c438.48$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.25,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over44c431.18$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5737844.4%168 W · 210 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4d…4c76backed Over44c403.61$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9513552.6%71 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over43c395.3$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9841141.4%170 W · 241 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf209…15b9backed Under58c389.92$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.775455.6%30 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Under57c364.57$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7718353.6%98 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Under57c364.57$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7718551.4%95 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under57c341.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9841847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under57c341.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9823851.3%122 W · 116 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Over40c340$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.610849.1%53 W · 55 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Under58c336.14$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.185952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Under57c304.5$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.933444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Under44c282.81$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.062437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bda…4282backed Under71c276.85$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.341070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Over37c270.64$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.572128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under57c269.4$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.91,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under57c264.26$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.651,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over46c236.86$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.122,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over47c234.49$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.219147.3%43 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over43c224.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5844348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under45c219.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2813441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over42c207.13$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.966,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3921…db37backed Over47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.821330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over34c195.95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6253238.5%205 W · 327 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7c…1439backed Over43c194.16$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.49520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc302…7409backed Under58c193.01$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab0…6364backed Under54c180.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.831376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under70c170.91$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.271,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under57c170.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4918345.4%83 W · 100 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdddd…6777backed Under58c168.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over13c163.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2678146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd68…ca27backed Under57c162.37$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.822152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Over40c148.53$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3729141.6%121 W · 170 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Under58c143.11$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.112846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2913…d241backed Under57c136.73$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.792560%15 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07ea…aab9backed Under58c132.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under71c123.54$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0467742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over43c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.628352.3%148 W · 135 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Over16c117.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2512250.8%62 W · 60 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3d…6542backed Over43c112.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.291662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea3d…2e9dbacked Over43c112.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.172969%20 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Over42c111.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7621153.6%113 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under72c109.81$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.042,54645.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L-74.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over49c107.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.734,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Over9c106.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.062611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbcf…ba89backed Over43c105.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Over43c105$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1550954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Under57c102.54$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1137747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.