MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe32e62c23c6bdc2773416a079a5d28013f56224b8c50a0979bd8ac90423ec324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 37c | 10,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,699.81 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 8,569$5,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.48 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Under | 48c | 3,128$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.77 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 2,191$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.87 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 63c | 1,467$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.8 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 39c | 1,248$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.6 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 65c | 1,056$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.26 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 4c | 984.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 13c | 532.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Over | 40c | 302.17$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 57c | 171.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 23c | 163.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 26c | 135.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 67c | 83.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 60c | 72.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 61.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 34c | 49.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 44.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 56c | 43.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 55c | 29.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Over | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 41c | 28.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 76c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88af…a083backed Under | 46c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Over | 54c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.