MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x457dd21aaed3f5ad341e6c96b19d3a26d77f9da69efec2d8ca060a330ad8aebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 43c | 9,760$4,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,533.32 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 3,866$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.64 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Under | 56c | 2,373$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.68 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 56c | 2,317$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.65 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 1,387$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.62 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 45c | 966.83$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.08 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 734.71$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.61 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…b3d2backed Under | 39c | 436.66$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 61c | 426.44$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.31 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 19c | 183.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.46 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 64c | 177.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 73.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 53c | 52.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 57c | 47.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 56c | 44.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 54c | 41.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 64c | 38.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e89…7880backed Over | 47c | 37.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Under | 54c | 32.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 42c | 32.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 50c | 22.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 57c | 19.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…d047backed Under | 60c | 18.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.