MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b113158a091fda55bd80b2769cfff7dbfae9cffe63ebf6973f4c6ffdaf666c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 42c | 468$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 59c | 409.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 14c | 256.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 40c | 200.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…e67abacked No | 57c | 172.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 30c | 169.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.65 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed No | 56c | 149.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 69c | 131.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 46c | 97.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 45c | 84.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 38c | 68.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…c6e4backed No | 59c | 68.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed No | 69c | 65.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 43c | 45.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed No | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed No | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked No | 58c | 41.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…c385backed No | 75c | 39.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb98…3e81backed No | 59c | 32.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Yes | 45c | 29.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…a265backed No | 68c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 65cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed No | 68c | 24.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 18.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.