NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9166db0067c1c8a37ffe1fb54c3def6eb38b440c91a31148ab06404a1d006617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f15…599fbacked Under | 52c | 7,308$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.69 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…69bebacked Over | 52c | 5,348$2,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,012$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 936.99$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.87 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 390$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 276.92$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 275$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 51c | 93.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 28.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Under | 49c | 23.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5this page
- Kings vs. RocketsRockets won
- Kings vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-15.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.