TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4505556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Under53c2,886$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.2635651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c2,867$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.74,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over48c2,581$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.7717744.1%78 W · 99 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over51c2,068$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.6736248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…9435backed Over49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x710a…ed6cbacked Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9802254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c1,767$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.179,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over49c1,561$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.892,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Under53c1,460$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.121142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under52c1,331$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6391,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over50c500.62$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25036943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25072647.7%346 W · 380 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under50c475.54$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.773,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over49c409$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Under52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.625062%31 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c229.41$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.412,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9861740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over50c186$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937047.1%33 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under54c89.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.543,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd801…4010backed Over46c85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Under54c79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3425642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under52c61.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1480148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under53c52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.442,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56a…9ef1backed Under51c43.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.144963.3%31 W · 18 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa46d…59c4backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012149.6%60 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd586…87cfbacked Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7411544.3%51 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1da6…53edbacked Under51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.415056%28 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea78…91c0backed Under51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.414562.2%28 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Under51c19.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7938048.7%185 W · 195 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.