NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11132c27828a66393928c3aca9ce4420d9f3abe0f143ecec3cd49b6a8d8e0f2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 53c | 2,886$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.26 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 2,867$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.7 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 48c | 2,581$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.77 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 2,068$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.67 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…9435backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…ed6cbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,767$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 1,561$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.89 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 53c | 1,460$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.1 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 52c | 1,331$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 50c | 500.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 475.54$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.77 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 409$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 229.41$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 50c | 186$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 54c | 89.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…4010backed Over | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 54c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 61.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Under | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…91c0backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5this page
- Kings vs. RocketsRockets won
- Kings vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-15.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.