NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6966b2341c567555b4ca7c0d21ff88afb49c83e1f7547654930985a3185d57c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Kings | 42c | 2,210$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.4 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Rockets | 57c | 1,930$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.9 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Rockets | 47c | 842$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.26 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 53c | 798.44$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Kings | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Rockets | 47c | 213.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Rockets | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 51c | 165.21$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 53c | 126.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Rockets | 46c | 88.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 44c | 85.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Rockets | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 54c | 59.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…c57bbacked Kings | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Kings | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Kings | 55c | 54.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Rockets | 46c | 39.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Kings | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Kings | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Rockets | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Kings | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Kings | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)this page
- Kings vs. RocketsRockets won
- Kings vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-15.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.