TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Rockets, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Kings49c20,280$9,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,937.021,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Rockets51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Kings51c1,973$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Rockets50c1,678$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.0689050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Kings49c990.2$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.227747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Rockets51c784.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.3115244.1%67 W · 85 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets47c745.71$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.174,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings55c537.99$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.638,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Rockets80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10076054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Kings50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25036943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7860…4694backed Kings20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Rockets51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1627161.3%166 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Kings50c368.44$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.2216837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Rockets52c361.54$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.5413644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Rockets49c355.88$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.522053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets49c322.13$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.299,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Rockets52c310.44$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.0123550.2%118 W · 117 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Kings48c307.33$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.522,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69fb…d909backed Rockets52c236.54$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Kings50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Kings50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Rockets52c197.94$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9426150.2%131 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Kings51c196.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012651.6%65 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40b…175fbacked Rockets51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.083339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Rockets52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x871c…7f0abacked Rockets52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3112063.3%76 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Kings35c159$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.911,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Rockets51c157.2$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0351146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Kings48c149.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9937750.4%190 W · 187 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Kings50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Rockets50c130$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6582440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kings48c127$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.966,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Kings50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5516849.4%83 W · 85 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Kings50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5054951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Kings53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5337850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Kings53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da9…582ebacked Kings50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Rockets33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Kings50c99.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7513550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Rockets51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0419150.3%96 W · 95 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Kings51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019951.8%103 W · 96 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Rockets52c92.88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5814552.4%76 W · 69 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Kings48c79.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3824454.1%132 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Kings51c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.537848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef44…86a5backed Kings49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f7…3ea6backed Kings50c50.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24845.8%22 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Kings51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.524946.6%116 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Kings50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019944.7%89 W · 110 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Kings50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209941.4%41 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Kings51c39.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffe…1bc9backed Rockets52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Rockets50c31.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5238845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Kings56c23.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3212156.2%68 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a51…ef48backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106642.4%28 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1074547.2%352 W · 393 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7848…5f80backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105253.8%28 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.