NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2aef39f2fc625a861ab910a33f7dd413c5c9c85f55b0c2d5bc580ad0a843516
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f15…599fbacked Under | 50c | 3,221$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 52c | 2,212$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,181$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…58c9backed Under | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…90e9backed Over | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 54c | 909$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.86 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 43c | 456.47$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.18 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 412.84$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.58 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…9e72backed Over | 57c | 301.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 300 | 44.3%133 W · 167 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 54c | 268.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 266$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 53c | 211.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Under | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 166$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 48c | 132$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3866…fb73backed Over | 54c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…2b99backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 68.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…06b3backed Under | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…4edbbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…416dbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…88acbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd128…c5dfbacked Under | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…bfb4backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…6aa2backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Under | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 55c | 28.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Over | 54c | 23.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0af3backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5this page
- Kings vs. RocketsRockets won
- Kings vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-15.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.