Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91a00b32c54804cfb1d7af2ff5ee54d599d9f4e8f064ef9a39152eb53cde6bd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 3,849$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.73 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe173…9af5backed Over | 34c | 3,655$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 35cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 38c | 3,314$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.4 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 960.3$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.38 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 17c | 777$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 71c | 530.74$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 33c | 375.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.48 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Under | 77c | 310.39$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 33c | 303.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 292.12$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.15 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 80c | 269$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 30c | 198.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Over | 46c | 168.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1817…5f80backed Over | 18c | 122.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 28c | 113.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 66c | 105.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 38c | 92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 60c | 61.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3aa…7a89backed Over | 45c | 44.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 70c | 42.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263e…2976backed Over | 34c | 42.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…61fabacked Over | 34c | 41.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…d19ebacked Over | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…6899backed Over | 35c | 40.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd573…f99ebacked Over | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…b162backed Over | 34c | 39.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9c0abacked Over | 34c | 38.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…3182backed Over | 34c | 38.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 33c | 31.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…d611backed Under | 67c | 21.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…7f1abacked Under | 67c | 21.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…3967backed Under | 67c | 21.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…e0f1backed Under | 67c | 21.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…1dc1backed Under | 67c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…3b6abacked Under | 67c | 19.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…f161backed Under | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ed…6cdabacked Under | 67c | 19.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…1684backed Under | 67c | 18.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc73…4902backed Under | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…9401backed Under | 67c | 17.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…941ebacked Under | 67c | 17.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…d37dbacked Under | 67c | 15.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.43per pick | 61cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5this page
- Paris FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.