NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91a34e88b679a9964817d93f275f80c67ded1b74ee7226a2edec4c1680132bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 28c | 3,017$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Over | 56c | 3,000$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.93 | 113 | 35.4%40 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 2,738$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.09 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 1,998$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,904$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.76 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 1,205$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.75 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 43c | 1,095$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.71 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 1,033$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 65c | 763.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.52 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 756.16$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…3199backed Under | 45c | 538.59$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 57c | 507.6$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.27 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 13c | 500.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 17c | 484.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 42c | 472.81$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 367.67$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…266ebacked Under | 4c | 366.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 43c | 333$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 43c | 253$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 56c | 235.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 56c | 205.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 56c | 205.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 56c | 205.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 56c | 205.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 44c | 188.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 6c | 176.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 41c | 158.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 49c | 130.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…c1c6backed Under | 12c | 127.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…306fbacked Over | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 44c | 99.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 35c | 91.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 33c | 82.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 44c | 76.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 44c | 76.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Under | 44c | 76.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 44c | 76.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 44c | 76.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed Under | 44c | 76.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 56c | 74.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…068abacked Under | 33c | 70.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 44c | 70.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…5cddbacked Over | 55c | 70.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 41c | 63.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Under | 46c | 57.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Under | 44c | 55.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Under | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Over | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 44c | 52.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 44.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Under | 44c | 42.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 45c | 42.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 76c | 36.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 47c | 35.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…4adabacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 44c | 33.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Under | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…e9a0backed Under | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 30.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 44c | 29.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 56c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +11.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 27.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4175…87a0backed Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Over | 72c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 44c | 23.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 44c | 23.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 52c | 21.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
- Grizzlies vs. BucksBucks won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)Bucks won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.