NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0bf8da4d3d1e79c4e16d52f721d50e0342079b43a7ab2368a4ddf3245426141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Grizzlies | 51c | 14,826$7,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,561.51 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fd1ebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 13,431$6,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,634.78 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks | 49c | 13,243$6,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,753.8 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bucks | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 46c | 3,643$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Bucks | 50c | 3,275$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.1 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bucks | 54c | 3,147$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.08 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c6…1b67backed Grizzlies | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies | 44c | 2,853$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.86 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 49c | 2,471$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.23 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Bucks | 49c | 1,978$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.97 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies | 56c | 1,779$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.83 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Bucks | 54c | 1,518$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.24 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Bucks | 49c | 989.18$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.48 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies | 50c | 610.94$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.47 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Grizzlies | 50c | 489.02$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Grizzlies | 52c | 466.92$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.8 | 192 | 58.3%112 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 392.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…7ee5backed Bucks | 49c | 365.48$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks | 49c | 362.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.47 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Grizzlies | 43c | 212.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…2c1abacked Grizzlies | 36c | 206.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Bucks | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Bucks | 54c | 188.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Bucks | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Bucks | 44c | 158.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Bucks | 58c | 151.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies | 51c | 116.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Bucks | 48c | 109.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Bucks | 46c | 100.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Bucks | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +190.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Bucks | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 53c | 81.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Bucks | 48c | 79.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Bucks | 49c | 65.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -9.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bucks | 51c | 59.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 57.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Bucks | 51c | 54.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Grizzlies | 44c | 50.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Grizzlies | 51c | 49.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Bucks | 54c | 47.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Bucks | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Grizzlies | 49c | 38.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Bucks | 49c | 38.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…e5acbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 36.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 200 | 55.5%111 W · 89 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bucks | 49c | 35.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Bucks | 52c | 24.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Grizzlies | 48c | 20.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Bucks won
- Grizzlies vs. BucksBucks won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Bucks won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.