TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,716,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,717,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,716,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies47c885,888$412,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412,920.4172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e7…be51backed Bucks54c812,812$438,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374,024.5210049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Grizzlies46c130,684$60,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,469.217646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Bucks54c68,188$36,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,337.184860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Grizzlies46c53,022$24,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,382.0366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies47c36,568$17,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,060.539,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Bucks53c25,000$13,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,75024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Grizzlies48c21,377$10,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,155.8890650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bucks47c21,156$9,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,210.091,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks48c20,860$9,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,948.534,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies51c15,639$7,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,960.842,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Bucks52c13,129$6,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,313.0974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Grizzlies48c11,810$5,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,668.641,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bucks51c11,276$5,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,530.942,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked Bucks48c11,050$5,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,746.023941%16 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies46c10,275$4,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,717.663,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked Grizzlies47c10,100$4,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7454528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Grizzlies46c9,991$4,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,596.082,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks49c9,957$4,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,094.536,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks53c9,449$5,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,441.031,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks49c9,326$4,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,756.271,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa136…ea3cbacked Bucks49c7,913$3,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,035.873941%16 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Bucks50c7,469$3,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,734.52166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Grizzlies47c5,456$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.4229849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Bucks57c5,143$2,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.4422159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Bucks64c4,580$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.3242348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Bucks51c4,320$2,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.830446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Grizzlies46c4,132$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.1771654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Grizzlies50c4,018$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00916249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Grizzlies50c3,000$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.5387750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Bucks49c2,624$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.4170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Grizzlies46c2,602$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.041,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Bucks55c2,481$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.5214940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Bucks49c2,233$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.0422643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bucks50c2,163$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.871,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Grizzlies48c2,083$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.841,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks49c2,028$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.475,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Grizzlies46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Bucks50c1,940$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks50c1,800$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.842,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bucks54c1,711$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.62,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Bucks52c1,600$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7689447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Grizzlies46c1,421$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.4365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Bucks57c1,265$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.1612257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Bucks79c1,249$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.9443269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bucks52c1,162$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.873,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Bucks52c1,151$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.4856843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Grizzlies48c1,056$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.521,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Bucks49c997.51$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.7331643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Bucks79c987.4$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.412454.8%68 W · 56 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Grizzlies58c974.8$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.385945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Grizzlies43c930.38$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0616039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Grizzlies46c881.36$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.4219745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Grizzlies50c833.7$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.631,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks53c815.59$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.332,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies46c774.37$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks54c760.89$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.978,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Grizzlies49c716.46$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.6449852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Grizzlies48c664.34$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.481,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Bucks59c661.29$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.1325657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks47c628.71$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.634,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Bucks47c622.39$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.9944345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Grizzlies47c614.1$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.31,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Grizzlies51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30649345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Bucks51c593.3$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.2758953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661f…098abacked Bucks50c561.55$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.785655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Grizzlies50c497.82$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.892437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+57%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Grizzlies52c496.81$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3447651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Grizzlies21c495$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9510239.2%40 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Bucks50c484.86$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.857153.5%38 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Grizzlies47c477.89$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2519550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdef1…c0debacked Bucks54c474.53$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.286852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Bucks51c470.15$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.1781349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Grizzlies50c450.34$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1693543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Grizzlies43c449.32$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.166046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5c…0fc2backed Grizzlies46c432.71$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.9110255.9%57 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grizzlies45c423$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.071,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a53…074abacked Grizzlies49c402.06$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.665448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bucks50c401.97$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.982,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Bucks49c395.67$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7918450.5%93 W · 91 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Grizzlies46c395.48$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.692,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Bucks49c387.76$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.761,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Bucks50c386.84$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.4142352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…2c1abacked Grizzlies35c376.23$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.652568%17 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8dcd…74c6backed Grizzlies52c368.64$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.885137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Grizzlies30c360.55$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.961,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141d…7ea0backed Grizzlies51c350.5$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.759454.3%51 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Grizzlies43c348.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Grizzlies52c338.14$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.816948.5%82 W · 87 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Grizzlies46c315.52$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1439552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Bucks49c314.55$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1412752.8%67 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Bucks49c312.63$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4432450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Grizzlies48c305.01$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2910252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Grizzlies36c299.95$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9828929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3783…b087backed Bucks55c295.83$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa04…796bbacked Bucks52c291.3$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.795651.8%29 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9f…5403backed Bucks52c283.78$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.214953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Bucks49c283.52$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6756447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Bucks55c281.29$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5824856.5%140 W · 108 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…bac1backed Bucks49c278.95$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.263066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.