Us Politics · resolved market
>100 redactions in Epstein files?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x921a3bbe0cb970c1f74384ff92e508c1af4a626a6b9cf80a94f05911644b4dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 4c | 837.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 7c | 832.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 604.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked No | 37c | 536.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Yes | 72c | 518.07$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 6c | 507.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed No | 9c | 484.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 10c | 256.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 253.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 17c | 234.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 56c | 233.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 61c | 166.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 16c | 151.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 149.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed Yes | 18c | 91.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…3bd1backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf5…3e16backed Yes | 76c | 67.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 64c | 58.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 79c | 32.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.