CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x921dfc19fb626ddf12e90c115d493af2c307ce6913983bc321f99f8a8fe2b068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TheMongolzof Natus Vincere, TheMongolz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb43…4201backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 6,380$3,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,586.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked TheMongolz | 51c | 1,196$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.07 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…944cbacked TheMongolz | 37c | 1,000$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed TheMongolz | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.99 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked TheMongolz | 52c | 952.44$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.18 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked TheMongolz | 46c | 673.13$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.93 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…7c8fbacked TheMongolz | 51c | 657$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.93 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed TheMongolz | 50c | 564.9$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.35 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…f815backed TheMongolz | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed TheMongolz | 50c | 409.77$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.89 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 349.77$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed TheMongolz | 43c | 288$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed TheMongolz | 22c | 279.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.76 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked TheMongolz | 22c | 243.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.65 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…be7cbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 181.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed TheMongolz | 49c | 167.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed TheMongolz | 23c | 156.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed TheMongolz | 55c | 154.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked TheMongolz | 49c | 126.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a7…4f5bbacked TheMongolz | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked TheMongolz | 19c | 83.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed TheMongolz | 33c | 81.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…fbc8backed TheMongolz | 52c | 76.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked TheMongolz | 35c | 70.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae0…0dfebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked TheMongolz | 51c | 66.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 324 | 58%188 W · 136 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 58.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed TheMongolz | 52c | 49.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 43.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 499 | 47.5%237 W · 262 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f6…0ee8backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…0cf5backed TheMongolz | 68c | 29.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked TheMongolz | 52c | 26.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked TheMongolz | 51c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed TheMongolz | 52c | 21.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Natus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerTheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)TheMongolz won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)Natus Vincere won
- Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)TheMongolz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.