TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$378,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,157 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports65c39,910$25,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,074.0355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ38c28,074$10,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,767.72,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports53c24,544$13,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,416.9654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed MOUZ32c19,057$6,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,091.5651751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Tundra Esports66c18,940$12,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,399.8771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ37c16,613$6,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,102.5966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ36c10,000$3,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,592.7342650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed MOUZ32c8,570$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76550832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Tundra Esports66c7,853$5,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.799636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ41c7,703$3,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,182.4386949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ28c6,365$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.881,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed MOUZ29c5,555$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.9532854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ6c5,526$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5240014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ31c5,001$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.691,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Tundra Esports56c4,340$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.4953451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked MOUZ32c4,266$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.8818746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed MOUZ51c3,747$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.4734468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed MOUZ47c3,727$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.7333041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed MOUZ35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.996647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Tundra Esports67c2,992$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.1912851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Tundra Esports64c2,830$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.6248954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed MOUZ45c2,651$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2009447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2969…d6e5backed MOUZ34c2,636$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked MOUZ15c2,299$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.316945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Tundra Esports67c2,236$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.0414253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ34c2,229$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.341,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked MOUZ18c2,158$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.975549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked MOUZ52c2,083$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.4432652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports64c2,076$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.741,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ32c2,013$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.0469644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ33c1,800$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.9958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Tundra Esports66c1,777$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.5936343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…b3b6backed MOUZ19c1,759$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ37c1,590$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.22,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ35c1,515$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.5838049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed MOUZ45c1,512$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.248749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Tundra Esports60c1,495$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.824452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed MOUZ49c1,476$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.431835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ33c1,444$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.3981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked MOUZ20c1,407$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28816725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed MOUZ27c1,400$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37233541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed MOUZ32c1,399$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7122643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ35c1,372$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.91,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Tundra Esports78c1,339$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.8212654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Tundra Esports56c1,329$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.0535758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7351…b857backed MOUZ34c1,317$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.422744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked MOUZ45c1,226$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.797159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Tundra Esports58c1,211$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.429651%49 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Tundra Esports79c1,196$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8136759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Tundra Esports73c1,154$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.6739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Tundra Esports67c1,120$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.6116550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked MOUZ33c1,086$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.267935.4%28 W · 51 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Tundra Esports67c1,084$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.748251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed MOUZ32c1,044$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9556548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Tundra Esports48c1,022$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.2825147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Tundra Esports63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Tundra Esports52c1,000$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.9823650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed MOUZ40c996.56$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8133645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked Tundra Esports67c963.54$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.644465.9%29 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Tundra Esports52c949.99$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45313456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed MOUZ7c938.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.776132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports59c900$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Tundra Esports62c900$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.8445457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Tundra Esports67c879.21$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.8118075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Tundra Esports67c851.31$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9711549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed MOUZ36c838.2$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8212638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad1…7653backed MOUZ39c814.46$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.741464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ36c800.1$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed MOUZ43c800$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked MOUZ20c772.71$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5153844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…4dc4backed MOUZ31c756.15$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked MOUZ8c750$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.537018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ54c740.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Tundra Esports55c732.56$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.5638653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Tundra Esports67c727.16$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.161,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb638…5213backed MOUZ19c720.95$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.983215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked MOUZ43c702.36$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.6516932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked MOUZ10c700$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7337811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Tundra Esports64c686.78$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.26753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed MOUZ34c679.04$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.873225%8 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf012…8a8ebacked Tundra Esports66c677.73$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.431266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Tundra Esports70c652.21$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.712661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports60c636.64$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.421,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Tundra Esports57c624.62$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.6245046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed MOUZ23c600$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13813027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked MOUZ39c600$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.6137047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea8…077dbacked Tundra Esports67c587.77$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.265349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Tundra Esports68c563.28$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4211450%57 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed MOUZ45c549.33$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.244645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Tundra Esports67c522.39$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.394553.3%24 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…b93dbacked Tundra Esports67c522.39$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.391637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbcc…5ae5backed MOUZ47c514.04$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Tundra Esports68c513.95$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8813247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Tundra Esports55c509.98$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.4919756.9%112 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b8…50d8backed MOUZ40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked MOUZ34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4039…3ef3backed MOUZ36c499.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.991838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed MOUZ53c499.31$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.0565625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked MOUZ54c496.39$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.873964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked MOUZ10c480$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4814744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.