Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x922fa5d46ed72cf42b49e6e8b45ef5a61364f6ece670da28221cc35fc918caa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 14c | 1,344$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.16 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 66c | 347.31$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 282.13$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 72c | 269.91$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 79c | 237.46$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 233.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 175.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 173.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 167.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 162.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…717bbacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 77cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 147.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 60c | 146.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 133.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 24c | 129.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 37c | 121.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 89.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 80c | 87.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 86.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 58c | 86.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 32c | 85.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 82.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 38c | 80.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 33c | 76.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 72.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 69.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 25c | 68.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 61.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 35c | 58.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 58.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 53.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 51.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 36c | 48.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 67c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 37.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 70c | 34.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 50c | 33.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 33.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 32.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 30.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 61c | 30.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 29.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 41c | 28.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 68c | 26.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 23.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 69c | 23.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 21.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 15.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 15.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.