NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924214983d29b6ac52358252674b2ea2267e32bb21219e54ea1292ffa86d12f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 5,866$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050.36 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 5,497$2,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…0eb7backed Over | 46c | 2,264$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…da75backed Under | 54c | 1,556$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 46c | 1,511$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.15 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…20a3backed Over | 47c | 1,474$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…cbe8backed Under | 54c | 1,129$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 1,071$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…2babbacked Over | 47c | 1,059$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…47b7backed Under | 54c | 1,046$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…044fbacked Under | 54c | 1,004$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822c…a2fcbacked Under | 53c | 550$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a0…852dbacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…8be2backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 54c | 389.25$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.6 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…1d24backed Under | 53c | 350$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f99ebacked Over | 46c | 321$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d1…461ebacked Under | 54c | 304$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…70c3backed Over | 48c | 176$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 150.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…8a78backed Under | 54c | 131$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…a538backed Under | 54c | 124$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 48c | 71.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Under | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5this page
- Kings vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.