NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29818d521dc011fe90bef50d017d3ee139009aaa997b99a292f96e11d374b282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $382,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $383,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 49c | 376,689$184,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184,203.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 51c | 175,000$89,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,750 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 51c | 169,700$86,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,153 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 7,233$3,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,488.23 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.01 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 4,690$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.1 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 52c | 3,324$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Over | 52c | 2,561$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.28 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 704$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 52c | 507.84$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.76 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…7895backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf9…fe92backed Under | 47c | 299$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 273$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 52c | 223.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Over | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 167.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 52c | 121.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 52c | 111.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 53c | 101.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1561…1a93backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 59.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c4…2221backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5this page
- Kings vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.