NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0b55dfb1cef373277615293e811e8f164c0615f5923d408e74dfebed837300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over | 48c | 8,888$4,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,621.76 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 51c | 6,246$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,155.68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Under | 52c | 6,048$3,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,144.76 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8e…e90cbacked Under | 51c | 4,329$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,740$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…17bdbacked Over | 49c | 1,801$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 1,521$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.19 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…5c3bbacked Over | 49c | 1,203$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e50…c337backed Over | 49c | 1,003$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 970.44$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.56 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 52c | 962$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.92 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 817$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.08 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1144…e1c3backed Over | 49c | 765$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 50c | 506$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…0a93backed Under | 52c | 465$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 424.35$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 53c | 410$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.7 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 341.48$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.25 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…b816backed Over | 49c | 322$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…4197backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 48c | 155$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 52c | 119.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 52c | 116$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 49c | 27.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5this page
- Kings vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.