NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e4a7a74a4946ec492e6b02421390821c96799bebf53bd022f081dd2e212c7e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Nuggets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Kings | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 44c | 2,820$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 57c | 2,554$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Nuggets | 56c | 2,235$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets | 57c | 1,842$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 44c | 1,144$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.51 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Kings | 44c | 799.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…390abacked Nuggets | 55c | 540$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…797abacked Kings | 45c | 540$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Nuggets | 55c | 422.19$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.87 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kings | 46c | 311.2$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.05 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nuggets | 54c | 271.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 47c | 153$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kings | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nuggets | 54c | 70.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…2df3backed Nuggets | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Nuggets | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kings | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…f49dbacked Nuggets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)this page
- Kings vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.