Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Amanda Anisimova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924eda8b3bc2d5807308ba3a052f95c550e8ffe1c9a3d30882663270a23ae2a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Anisimovaof Muchova, Anisimova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Muchova | 0c | 11,470$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Muchova | 44c | 5,897$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.81 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Anisimova | 50c | 5,014$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Muchova | 41c | 4,695$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.17 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Anisimova | 56c | 4,500$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.3 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Muchova | 51c | 4,152$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.56 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Anisimova | 52c | 2,114$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.51 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Muchova | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Anisimova | 58c | 1,736$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.3 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Muchova | 46c | 1,457$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.04 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Anisimova | 48c | 1,295$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.15 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Anisimova | 53c | 736.25$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.25 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Muchova | 50c | 685.81$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.59 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Anisimova | 64c | 642.86$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Anisimova | 33c | 602.26$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.46 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Anisimova | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked Anisimova | 64c | 581.23$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.24 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Muchova | 35c | 547.02$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Anisimova | 65c | 500.77$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.57 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Anisimova | 28c | 500$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Anisimova | 41c | 492.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.06 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Muchova | 43c | 464.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Muchova | 58c | 430$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.7 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Muchova | 37c | 343$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked Muchova | 73c | 342$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Anisimova | 60c | 332.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Muchova | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Muchova | 42c | 258.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Muchova | 37c | 209.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Muchova | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Muchova | 60c | 172.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Anisimova | 61c | 163.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Anisimova | 39c | 146.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Anisimova | 46c | 123.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Muchova | 40c | 121.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…e7a1backed Anisimova | 64c | 114.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Anisimova | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Muchova | 35c | 113.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Muchova | 38c | 105.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Anisimova | 63c | 100.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Anisimova | 65c | 92.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Muchova | 39c | 90.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…927dbacked Anisimova | 40c | 87.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Anisimova | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Anisimova | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…e365backed Anisimova | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Muchova | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Anisimova | 61c | 48.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Anisimova | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…3906backed Anisimova | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Anisimova | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6e…6040backed Anisimova | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…bbb9backed Anisimova | 62c | 25.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Muchova | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.