Dota2 · resolved market
Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x925cd0a077cd40822c32e038f16049f2a03c1bc289697ae164e197745277c6cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fcc…ee29backed No | 68c | 701.07$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.83 | 174 | 51.7%90 W · 84 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…cf5abacked Yes | 33c | 599.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked Yes | 31c | 499.47$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yes | 61c | 329.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 73c | 245.5$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yes | 27c | 198.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 192.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed No | 71c | 183.14$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060d…d746backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 26c | 139.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 151 | 67.5%102 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Yes | 27c | 126.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 55c | 104.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 74c | 100.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 71c | 97.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Yes | 24c | 89.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 18c | 81.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Yes | 27c | 79.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 36c | 70.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ba…61b4backed Yes | 48c | 61.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 70c | 60.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…d8e1backed No | 77c | 50.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked No | 72c | 49.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 65c | 48.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 31c | 43.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 42.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 51c | 40.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…0439backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 73c | 37.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a69…8caabacked No | 37c | 27.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 67c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 68c | 21.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 21.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed No | 75c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 73c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?this page
- Nigma Galaxy vs OG: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
- OG to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.