TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,486 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ad3…6871backed Yes45c1,890$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.7440%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes41c1,537$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.731,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes42c436.95$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.287223.6%17 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c401.14$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.222,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed No77c324.09$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.096758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c298.33$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.065,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No58c278$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.662,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes36c240$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes8c238.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.542,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes45c235.77$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.092,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c193.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.584,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4035…206dbacked No38c192.72$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.26977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No65c179.95$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6364021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No53c168.31$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.424,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c158.95$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.965,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e9…8be2backed Yes48c145.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.92642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes46c145$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.181,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No51c131.22$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4665353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No65c130.32$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2492678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c127.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No39c117.13$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4617858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No51c107.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.978,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes28c106.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8440352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c104.57$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.359,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes45c104$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.818043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes43c104$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.722751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No50c103.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.712,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No59c97.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8613959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No53c95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6518368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c92.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.753,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c92.2$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.084,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c91.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes35c90.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.112,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c86.81$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c78.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.764,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes45c75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No60c55.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.289,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes37c55.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.521,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.155,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No66c52.84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8445675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.58543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.517255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No58c46.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.946457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4522550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No54c41.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0641051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes39c40.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes43c38.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.742,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7c…5dadbacked No59c36.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.923452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes43c34.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes60c34.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9eee…9a08backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6bf…3387backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.994066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No49c29.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.271,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No63c29.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0777555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No62c26.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Yes38c26.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.259541.1%39 W · 56 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No54c25.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.937355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No59c24.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.144,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No52c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.521,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c3f…bc25backed No59c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.614761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No58c20.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.821,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes58c20.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8228441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.627247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.452,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.