Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65836c18cfb69f6a0b0e7cb96054afe35f72c46e852ecc4fc5393909e6599a15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 35c | 1,305$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.3 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61cc…7a02backed No | 66c | 1,210$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 69c | 317.72$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 37c | 260.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 228.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 219.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 202.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 185$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 148.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 144.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 136.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 121.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 121.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 120.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 113.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 32c | 110.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 33c | 107.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 104.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 36c | 87.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 85.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 47c | 83.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 77.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 32c | 76.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 49c | 74.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 71.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 71c | 67.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 65.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 79c | 63.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 54.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 35c | 48.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 48.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 54c | 48.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 65c | 46.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 65c | 45.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 41.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 41.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 33.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 33.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 33.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 33.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 31.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…48b6backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 34c | 31.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 39c | 28.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…92c3backed No | 61c | 28.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 23.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 61c | 21.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…2edabacked Yes | 67c | 20.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 56c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 18.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 17.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 67c | 17.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…6593backed No | 63c | 15.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.