NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x926c939f499f62af3e6652b41d4aa2f9abd14d1a69b551ae02b5f733a12a37b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 2,247$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.68 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 1,456$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.88 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,194$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 48c | 771.57$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.35 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…b202backed Under | 50c | 590$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…ab58backed Over | 50c | 590$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Under | 53c | 266.04$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…0674backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3235…5a6bbacked Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 157$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 115$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Under | 53c | 109.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 107.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 52c | 98.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…2692backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…71dbbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…8905backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…f4c8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…c5dbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…d7ecbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…0d0cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…1e7fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…29c7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b2…869cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3ea1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…fceabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Mavericks vs. RocketsRockets won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.