NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd576723d2fa1f58a770d0cf0f1049252dcd50c0b7f0f720f92cd68ed731053ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 7,271$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,166.08 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 57c | 5,731$3,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,282.46 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 4,806$2,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a2d1backed Over | 51c | 3,800$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 52c | 2,210$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.2 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 43c | 441.87$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.86 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 398.42$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.05 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 184.56$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 148$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 123$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 123$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…b161backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Over | 52c | 34.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Mavericks vs. RocketsRockets won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.