NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668f94ba99c04f146d8f3ae098dbace3907c863a06a9ec5ae19b92a94559054e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Rockets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Rockets | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Mavericks | 50c | 11,898$5,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,948.76 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Mavericks | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Mavericks | 49c | 7,777$3,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,966.25 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Rockets | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 51c | 3,466$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Mavericks | 49c | 3,438$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.24 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22c…9050backed Rockets | 40c | 2,499$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 60c | 2,482$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Rockets | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Rockets | 52c | 1,533$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.12 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…b4b5backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Rockets | 51c | 1,352$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.94 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets | 51c | 1,300$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.99 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Rockets | 50c | 888$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rockets | 50c | 876.61$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.13 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Rockets | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Rockets | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Rockets | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 48c | 326.92$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Mavericks | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets | 50c | 269$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Rockets | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Rockets | 50c | 204.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Rockets | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Mavericks | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Rockets | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Rockets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Mavericks | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Rockets | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…f49dbacked Rockets | 51c | 116.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…b8a8backed Mavericks | 51c | 114.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…5822backed Mavericks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…43b4backed Rockets | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Rockets | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Mavericks | 50c | 65.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Mavericks | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…f8e5backed Rockets | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Rockets | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Mavericks | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…5136backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Rockets | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…a381backed Rockets | 52c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Rockets | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…17c3backed Rockets | 51c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…f84ebacked Mavericks | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Rockets | 50c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Mavericks | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967f…7281backed Rockets | 52c | 23.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Rockets | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Mavericks | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Rockets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…a514backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…cad6backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Mavericks vs. RocketsRockets won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.