Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9279c8f9a4699ebd0b64ead3188219af6f9eaf4f4b74c4d9036a22ec46052291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ccf…7d58backed Yes | 12c | 449.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 388.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 18c | 307.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…a938backed Yes | 20c | 268.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 20c | 202.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 198.77$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 138.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 131.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 12c | 129.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 111.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 102.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 18c | 102.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 90.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 22c | 88.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 86.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 18c | 84.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9d…02f8backed Yes | 20c | 81.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 15c | 76.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 17c | 68.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 78c | 60.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes | 19c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 18c | 58.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 56.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed Yes | 24c | 41.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 36.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 19.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 80c | 16.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.