Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed8bc7b2eccecf1964cc862d33f5ab0013a1cb0965ff0d31a0beebddb5846b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 30c | 660$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 72c | 320.84$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 222.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 28c | 184.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 153.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 139.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 30c | 136.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 128.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 12c | 124.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 111.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 108.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5478…a9f8backed No | 75c | 91.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 56c | 89.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 35c | 81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 27c | 80.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 24c | 75.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 73.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 71.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 74c | 60.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes | 36c | 59.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 57.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 55.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 66c | 54.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 53.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 49.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 45.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 76c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 38c | 43.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 43.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 33c | 41.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 38.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 37.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…7d58backed No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 48c | 33.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 32.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…cf03backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 26.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…1d8fbacked Yes | 38c | 26.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 53c | 23.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 50c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…d419backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 18.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 18.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 57c | 17.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 67c | 16.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 14.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.