Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9286577d091f608fd83b53ddcbfdc151b11d50fe92ad29251f53efd0f8f286d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 256 | 4.3%11 W · 245 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +220.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…db23backed No | 4c | 1,414$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 2c | 1,064$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 748.62$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 614 | 21.8%134 W · 480 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 13c | 667.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 40c | 502.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.55 | 228 | 25.9%59 W · 169 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 452.54$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.66 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 66c | 318.15$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 38c | 302.65$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.88 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 30c | 296.48$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.48 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 191.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 58c | 167.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 46c | 166.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 66c | 157.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 50c | 121.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 35c | 117.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 32c | 116.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 114.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 111.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 108.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 68c | 106.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 63c | 100.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 49c | 98.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 22c | 98.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 87.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 43c | 86.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 83.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 73.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 71.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 68.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed Yes | 64c | 66.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 201 | 27.4%55 W · 146 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 51c | 64.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 54.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 53.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…1c0bbacked Yes | 74c | 52.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 33c | 52.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 75c | 52.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 112 | 72.3%81 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…aeadbacked No | 67c | 45.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…c072backed Yes | 30c | 44.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 42.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 55c | 36.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 255 | 58.4%149 W · 106 L | +23.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 32.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 52c | 31.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 66c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 50c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 28.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 27.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 23.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.