TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,793

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,730 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians72c2,646$1,900 inWon+$745.6710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds28c1,993$552 inLost-$551.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds40c667$265 inLost-$265.274,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds29c211$61 inLost-$61.191,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Cincinnati Reds22c153.84$34 inLost-$33.8457548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians78c133.08$103 inWon+$29.688,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds55c77.38$43 inLost-$42.5511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds28c75$21 inLost-$211,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Cleveland Guardians71c73$52 inWon+$21.1746854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians71c73$52 inWon+$21.1772154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Cleveland Guardians71c65$46 inWon+$18.857558.7%44 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Cleveland Guardians41c60.97$25 inWon+$35.978240.2%33 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians69c53.39$37 inWon+$16.42,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians76c51.37$39 inWon+$12.338,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians57c50$29 inWon+$21.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9865…f6afbacked Cincinnati Reds31c48.39$15 inLost-$1531032.9%102 W · 208 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians73c40$29 inWon+$10.85,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds29c37.25$11 inLost-$10.82,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Cincinnati Reds48c27.6$13 inLost-$13.2544737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Cincinnati Reds57c18.4$10 inLost-$10.491,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Cleveland Guardians70c15$11 inWon+$4.519257.8%111 W · 81 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cleveland Guardians78c14$11 inWon+$3.081,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.