MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4796307336bae7c915b3e1d1f29e58552ad690cc5baf6302ad24e8553dad41b7

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $65,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,236 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under	55c	21,350$11,840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,840.25	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0462…cddebacked Over	43c	19,910$8,565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,345.22	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+132.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over	48c	10,405$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,405.42	126	40.5%51 W · 75 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over	43c	5,172$2,210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,962.67	1,522	34.7%528 W · 994 L	+27.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	55c	4,495$2,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,450.68	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	57c	3,878$2,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,196.63	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over	50c	3,378$1,689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,689.11	865	48.7%421 W · 444 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	56c	2,514$1,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,413.99	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	50c	2,407$1,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,193.73	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over	51c	1,912$975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$936.76	390	47.4%185 W · 205 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	50c	1,535$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.04	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Under	50c	1,158$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.01	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under	50c	1,032$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.46	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over	49c	1,010$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.2	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	54c	1,007$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.89	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	49c	822.61$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.08	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under	53c	820$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.6	299	50.5%151 W · 148 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Over	36c	650.77$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$413.35	575	48%276 W · 299 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under	57c	600$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	116	55.2%64 W · 52 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	49c	600$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	58c	568.34$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.6	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Under	51c	490$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.9	174	46%80 W · 94 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Under	50c	397.71$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.86	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6013…9826backed Under	66c	372.42$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.62	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	74cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	591	50.3%297 W · 294 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	1,000	52.4%524 W · 476 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	364	40.1%146 W · 218 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over	50c	180$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	128	45.3%58 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Under	60c	125.17$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	103	43.7%45 W · 58 L	-9.9wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under	27c	121$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.56	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	21c	119$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under	55c	104.53$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.32	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	846	51.5%436 W · 410 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	163	53.4%87 W · 76 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Over	54c	94$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.24	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Under	59c	84.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	88	47.7%42 W · 46 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	22c	80.11$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Under	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	204	46.6%95 W · 109 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	52c	75$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.18	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over	45c	73.33$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.33	546	51.3%280 W · 266 L	+29.8wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	39c	69.63$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.6	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Under	57c	48.94$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.02	143	53.1%76 W · 67 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under	60c	42.38$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.43	325	50.5%164 W · 161 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d91…5c20backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89ab…89acbacked Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Over	39c	31.78$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.34	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf93c…475ebacked Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Under	65c	26.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Over	41c	26.07$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.43	446	48.7%217 W · 229 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	62c	24.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.27	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	52c	22.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	1,912	53%1,014 W · 898 L	+42.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under	60c	21.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	469	52.5%246 W · 223 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9b…2be5backed Under	50c	20.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc816…7a20backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Under	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	67cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	425	50.1%213 W · 212 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	74c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.1	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under	64c	15.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event