MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdcfb005e2fdfc4a2b13d147d08f2d533f9ee05a644c73a84a9557eed667e600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 1,807$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.13 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 65c | 1,805$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.65 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 32c | 1,220$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Over | 71c | 1,174$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.94 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 795.76$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Under | 62c | 500$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 499.97$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 62c | 476.19$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.82 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 452$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.72 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 33c | 394.55$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 39c | 352.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.03 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 58c | 279.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 42c | 273.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 229$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 165.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 62c | 159.47$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 151.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 39c | 129$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 42c | 104.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 103.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 62c | 59.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 52.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 60c | 33.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 62c | 28.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 21.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.