MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4700c0ea2b2288c7872e834cbc25d301e10f52e72c40a287fcb56622a09f2d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 15,292$6,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,974.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 12,053$7,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,111.56 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 7,430$4,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,383.84 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,838$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.18 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 1,837$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 1,766$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,225$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.79 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,153$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 1,027$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 1,005$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.95 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 949.26$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.84 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 914.62$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.63 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 407.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.56 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 340$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 229.39$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 191.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 135$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 116.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 108.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 88.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 67.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 66.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 63.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 59.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 50.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 49.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 26.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 25.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.