Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9358cc2d8be3afa52f68f22c65e1e2f4f9f725e347c4852c21f5005d4bc0dcc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 79c | 1,258$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 642.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.24 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 571.57$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.89 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 57c | 505$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.05 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 72c | 392.69$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.74 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 20c | 392.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.49 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 75c | 350$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 24c | 257$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 244.34$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 23c | 212.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.32 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 74c | 192.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 40c | 177.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 28c | 146.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 75c | 109$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Under | 77c | 104.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 61c | 81.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 30c | 66.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…545abacked Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Over | 24c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Under | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Under | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Under | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Under | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 75c | 26.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Under | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Under | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +37%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Under | 59c | 25.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Under | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Under | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 77cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Under | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 73c | 21.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Under | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 69cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 59c | 17.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Under | 76c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…682bbacked Under | 76c | 14.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Under | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…8be2backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.