Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabcc578c303874937c6d0f66135a89ea2aa09dc71fb083f2a4cfbe147cc670bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 68c | 1,832$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.39 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 1,058$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.63 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 32c | 999.97$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 68c | 879.06$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.49 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 28c | 610.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Under | 33c | 502.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 34c | 499.89$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.11 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…ff88backed Under | 42c | 481.04$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Under | 32c | 443.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.07 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 78c | 320.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…f219backed Over | 58c | 172.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…540bbacked Over | 56c | 167$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 35c | 157.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd67…bb43backed Over | 67c | 140.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 66c | 131.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…e759backed Under | 42c | 99.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 79.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 68c | 79.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bb…b369backed Over | 76c | 78.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 63c | 74.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…031abacked Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Under | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Over | 69c | 59.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 57.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1835…83afbacked Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Over | 76c | 52.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 66c | 50.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 32c | 46.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 69c | 38.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…2918backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Over | 67c | 32.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 77c | 31.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…dac9backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…7110backed Over | 66c | 29.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 67c | 29.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5f03backed Over | 62c | 28.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc407…360dbacked Over | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 68c | 25.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…8897backed Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Over | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f63…3791backed Over | 68c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.