NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9363a241ecf7f27cb006418761f301954201086a75b549c457727097edf45c66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,857 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 2,115$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 172 | 46.5%80 W · 92 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 907.43$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 65c | 664.6$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.61 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 35c | 337.31$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 35c | 332.29$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…5aeebacked Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 94.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…32aabacked Under | 49c | 94.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Over | 48c | 41.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Under | 70c | 28.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…52d4backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Raptors vs. BullsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.