NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5854254f06b6beee99e9335a7ebef0370fbc2ba3da5589f2950646191b614b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,246 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 54c | 14,749$7,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,763.86 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 5,968$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 3,621$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.02 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 2,304$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…d3cdbacked Over | 52c | 1,959$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…1ffebacked Under | 48c | 1,901$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…e31dbacked Over | 52c | 1,833$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…61cdbacked Under | 48c | 1,733$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 52c | 1,587$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.53 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…e842backed Over | 52c | 1,540$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4823…a48bbacked Under | 20c | 1,512$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0d1cbacked Under | 48c | 1,425$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 80c | 1,406$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.13 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…6187backed Over | 52c | 1,355$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 1,060$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.34 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…cd9dbacked Under | 48c | 999$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…1445backed Under | 48c | 994$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 950.33$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.54 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…09f9backed Over | 52c | 899$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…7c48backed Under | 48c | 762$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bee…0ca9backed Under | 49c | 727$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.23 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 55c | 413.72$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.68 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 375.51$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.76 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 54c | 345.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.34 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 44c | 319.73$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 26c | 291.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 74c | 291.89$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 232.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 231.16$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d7…c515backed Over | 52c | 228$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…acccbacked Under | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 170.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 48c | 169.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 43c | 164$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9b6fbacked Under | 47c | 152$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 48c | 111.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 43c | 106.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 99.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 48c | 98.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 46c | 91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 43c | 82.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 43c | 82.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…e940backed Over | 52c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…c4d3backed Over | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c9…14fbbacked Over | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…bd37backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 46.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Over | 53c | 45.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd8…825fbacked Over | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed Under | 48c | 40.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa7…d4febacked Under | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Under | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…4d87backed Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf525…559dbacked Under | 46c | 32.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 53c | 31.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 46c | 30.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…d21abacked Under | 44c | 30.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Under | 44c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 47c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…7a52backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…fa2abacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Raptors vs. BullsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.